How Investors Find Opportunities by Looking past Macro Trends
Data Drives Decision Making
- Exceptional population growth is occurring in the Sun Belt and nearby states, boosting CRE performance
- As a result, a heightened portion of CRE investment and development is targeting these areas
Macro-Trends Are Important But Not The Whole Picture
- Strong demographics boost CRE demand in the Sunbelt, but fundamentals vary from submarket to submarket
- Investors should remember to dig under the surface when making decisions even if macro data looks strong
The Best Areas In Hard-Hit Metros Record Strong Gains
- Even in San Francisco there are submarkets, like North San Mateo County, where office vacancy is more than 1,500 bps below the metro average
- Metros recording weaker positive trends will often surprise investors that look beyond market level data
*Five-year period: 2023 to 2027
Bubble size correlates to absolute population change
Forecast using Moody’s baseline scenario as of May 2023
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau, Moody’s Analytics
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