Looking Back, Looking Ahead: Commercial Real Estate Through Uncertainty
Elevated Uncertainty Mirrors Early Pandemic Conditions
- The Economic Uncertainty Index is at its second-highest level on record
- Investors are contending with headlines about tariffs, deportations, government department cuts, and inflation risks
- The current climate echoes the volatility experienced in 2020, making short-term forecasting difficult
Commercial Real Estate Performance Since 2020 Shows Resilience
- Retail, industrial, and multifamily have all seen strong rent and price gains since 2019
- Office experienced challenges, with higher vacancy, but still posted positive absorption in 2024
- Across most property types, commercial real estate values and fundamentals improved despite volatility
Long-Term Perspective Remains Key Amid Today’s Risks
- Many investors who bought during peak uncertainty in 2020 have seen strong returns since
- Despite the noise, declining construction, favorable demographics, and U.S. economic strength support a long-term investment outlook
Includes sales $1 million and greater
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics
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