Are We Facing a Labor Shortage?
- Retail sales jumped 15% above pre-recession levels and rising consumption is starting to stir inflation
- As demand rises, companies are reporting labor shortages despite an elevated number of unemployed
- About 4.1 million more people are unemployed now than before the pandemic; far below the 23M in April 2020
Disconnect Between Job Openings and Unemployment
- Job openings reached an all-time high this March, at over 8.1M; previous peak was 7.6M in November 2018
- Enhanced $300/week federal unemployment benefits disincentivize some people to work; run until September
- Disproportionately affects Retail and Hotel workers
Is This a Concern for Commercial Real Estate Investors?
- Staff shortages likely transitory; should settle by the Fall
- Risk of overstimulation exists, but likely better than the alternative scenario of under-stimulation
- Signs point to a faster recovery, which benefits all types of commercial real estate, even those facing headwinds