2023 Holiday Retail Sales; Impacts and Trends Affecting CRE

Status of the Consumer Heading Into Holiday Season

• Inflation-adjusted retail sales reached an all time high this October, up 21.3% since October 2019
• Reputable forecasts anticipate a 6% to 8% jump in 2022 holiday sales when compared to last year

Why are Consumers Amplifying Spending?

• Record employment levels and strong wage growth are part of what is driving the consumption bounce
• Above-normal savings levels, up nearly $4.4 trillion since the onset of COVID-19, are also aiding the retail sector

Implications for CRE investors

• Expectations for a record-breaking holiday retail spending points toward boosted performance for discretionary vendors
• Diverse tenant rosters are critical for investors, as a potential recession in 2023 would favor necessity-based retail, like grocery-anchored centers

*Core retail sales excludes auto and gasoline sales
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BEA, U.S. Census Bureau

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