THE IMPACT OF SHIFTING LENDING STANDARDS ON CRE MARKETS
Forecasts Predicting Record Breaking Holiday Season
- ICSC and NRF are both anticipating 2023 holiday retail sales to rise between 3% and 4% over last year
- When inflation-adjusting this data, retail sales expectations this season are the highest on record
Consumers Still Have Spending Capacity
- The economy has added 2.9 million workers over the last year, while disposable income has also increased
- This adds a tailwind for retail and industrial CRE space demand as businesses stage for increased consumption
Economic Outlook Still Solid
- With the government postponing the budget deadline to January/February, and the Fed unlikely to raise rates, the 2024 economic outlook remains cautiously optimistic
- The economist consensus favors slow but positive growth through 2024
* Forecast
Holiday Sales Include Non-Seasonally Adjusted Core Retail Sales for November and December
Excludes Auto, Gasoline and Restaurant Sales
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau, National Retail Federation
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