WHAT SHIFTING MIGRATION TRENDS MEAN FOR CRE PERFORMANCE
Population Migration Slowing After Post-Pandemic Bounce
- The number of monthly movers has fallen to near zero in the summer of 2024
- This is a slowing of record levels of population movement from coastal states to Sunbelt states from 2020-2023
Developers Assumed Migration Would Continue
- Development pipelines in Sunbelt areas, that grew the most quickly since 2019, are near record highs for 2024
- These metros could see vacancy rise in the near-term as new builds come online and inbound migration cools
Coastal and Midwest Construction Near All-Time Lows
- As developers looked at demographic shifts, new inventory expected to complete in places like California and the Midwest
- This creates an opportunity in some of the least discussed metros in the country if investors maintain long-term outlooks
*Through April
Includes New York, Los Angeles, The Bay Area, and Chicago
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Placer.AI
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